RFK Jr. Targets Vaccine Court, Risking US Supply Shortages

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has a long history as an anti-vaccine activist. He recently promised not to take away anyone’s vaccines. But experts worry his actions could hurt vaccine making in big ways. Kennedy has already limited who can get this year’s Covid shots. Now, he eyes changes to a key program that keeps vaccines flowing. This could lead to shortages like in the past. Let’s break down the risks and how it might play out in simple steps.

Kennedy’s Past and New Role

1. Kennedy has fought vaccines for years. He calls makers the bad guys and sues them often.
2. As health secretary, he leads big health choices. This includes vaccine rules and safety nets.
3. He says he won’t ban shots. But limiting access and changing rules could slow things down.
4. Experts like Dr. Paul Offit fear this hurts trust. Offit runs a vaccine center in Philly.

Kennedy’s views clash with science groups. The World Health Organization says vaccines saved 154 million lives in 50 years. Still, rare harms happen, like in 1 in 1 million shots.

The Vaccine Court Story

Back in the 1980s, lawsuits scared vaccine makers away.

1. Over a dozen companies quit. This caused big shortages.
2. Congress fixed it with the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, or VICP.
3. VICP acts like a no-blame court. It pays hurt people without suing makers.
4. Funded by a 75-cent fee per shot, it gave out $5.4 billion since start.
5. Dr. Walter Orenstein says it keeps supply steady. He’s a top disease expert.

The program helps both sides. Makers avoid court fights. Families get fast cash for real harms.

Kennedy’s Attacks on VICP

Kennedy now slams the program hard.

1. In a July X post, he called it corrupt and broken. He vows to fix it.
2. He says it drags cases or drops good ones. Over half get tossed, he claims.
3. Kennedy hired Andrew Downing, a lawyer who sued vaccine firms. Downing works in his office.
4. Both Kennedy and Downing went after Merck’s HPV shot, Gardasil.
5. A HHS spokesperson pointed to Kennedy’s X post for comment.

Experts like Offit warn this could kill vaccine making. “If you want to destroy vaccines, attack VICP,” Offit said.

How VICP Works and Its Flaws

The program has rules but needs help.

1. It covers 16 kid vaccines if proof links harm to shot.
2. Pays for bad allergies or Guillain-Barre, not autism. Science shows no link.
3. Claims must come in three years. Some harms show later.
4. Backlog grows. It needs more judges and cash, says Dorit Reiss.
5. Congress tried fixes, but bills fail. Only they can end or change it.

Reiss, a law prof, says more funds would clear waits. But Kennedy can tweak it a lot.

Big Changes Kennedy Could Make

Kennedy has power to shake things up.

1. In June, he told Tucker Carlson about a new hire to “revolutionize” VICP.
2. He could add new harms to the list. Like autism, which he ties to shots.
3. Kennedy ordered an autism report. Anti-vax David Geier wrote it. Out soon, per FDA head Marty Makary.
4. Adding autism would flood claims. Costs skyrocket, makers flee, says Y. Tony Yang.
5. Or, pull CDC nods for shots. Then, no VICP help—back to regular courts.
6. Courts mean more suits. Companies might quit, like in 1980s.

Offit fears history repeats. Yang says it signals big risks to firms.

Impact on Vaccine Makers and People

Changes hit everyone hard.

1. Pharma group PhRMA says VICP doesn’t block all suits. Denied claims go to court.
2. But floods scare makers. They see legal and bad press threats.
3. Andrew Powaleny of PhRMA notes it helped thousands.
4. For families, VICP is easier. No big lawyer fees or long fights.
5. David Carney, a VICP lawyer, says regular courts are costly and iffy.
6. Orenstein adds it shields kids who can’t get shots. Vaccinated kids help them.

Rare harms are real but tiny. Nation owes thanks to vaccine families, Orenstein said.

Kennedy’s CDC Panel Shake-Up

Kennedy remade the vaccine advice group.

1. In June, he fired all 17 members. Picked seven new ones.
2. Some have anti-vax pasts or writings.
3. Next meet reviews hep B for newborns and MMRV for kids under 5.
4. Votes could drop these from recs. Then, no VICP cover.
5. Reiss says this pushes suits to courts. Makers might bail.

This panel guides CDC shots. Changes could ripple wide.

Why This Worries Experts

The stakes are high for health.

1. VICP kept US vaccines reliable for decades.
2. Mess it up, and shortages return. No shots mean outbreaks.
3. Kennedy’s picks like Geier push his views. Offit calls it biased.
4. Report on autism likely blames vaccines. Fuels more claims.
5. Congress must act to save it. But politics slow that.

Reiss notes limits like short claim times. But core fixes need lawmakers.

What Could Happen Next

Watch for quick moves.

1. Autism report drops in weeks. Could spark VICP adds.
2. Panel votes soon on key shots. Hep B and MMRV in play.
3. Makers watch close. Might cut lines if risks grow.
4. Families with harms need VICP. Losing it hurts most.
5. Public trust dips. Anti-vax wins fuel fear.

Offit urges steady hand. “Best way to end manufacturing is hit VICP.”

Broader Health Picture

Vaccines fight diseases big time.

1. WHO credits them for millions saved.
2. Rare sides exist. VICP handles fair.
3. Kennedy’s role tests balance. Science vs. his beliefs.
4. Experts push Congress to boost funds.
5. Keep eyes on changes. They shape kid health years out.

This fight shows tension in policy. Safe shots vs. doubt. US supply hangs in balance.

Kennedy says fix for fairness. But path risks old woes. Stay tuned as steps unfold.